Dynamical Downscaling of Near-Term Climate Change and Variability for the Hawaiian Islands
As climate models continue to improve, the demand for more accurate climate projections is increasing. However, natural climate variability poses a limit to the confidence in regional climate change projections, particularly for the near-term. The goal of this project is to examine the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and anthropogenic climate change for their impacts on near-term rainfall projections for the Hawaiian Islands.
In this study, the moisture budget for the Hawaiian Islands is analyzed in order to explain projected hydrological changes for the near-term future (2026–2035). The analysis is based on 20 dynamically-downscaled simulations of member runs from the CESM1 Large Ensemble. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used for direct downscaling, taking into account the simulated changes in natural climate variability. The integrated MFC is decomposed into advection and divergence components, then further into dynamic and thermodynamic components to determine which terms drive the near-term hydrological changes.
